Long-term uncertainty of hydropower revenue due to climate change and electricity prices

Hydropower represents the world’s largest renewable energy source. As a flexible technology, it enhances reliability and security of the electricity system. However, climate change and market liberalization may hinder investment due to the evolution of water runoffs and electricity prices. Both alter expected revenue and bring uncertainty. It increases risk and deters investment. Our research assesses how climate change and market fluctuation affect annual revenue. But this paper focuses on the uncertainty, rather than on forecasting. This transdisciplinary topic is investigated by means of a mixed method, i.e. both quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative approach uses established models in natural sciences and economics. The uncertainty is accounted for by applying various scenarios and various datasets coming from different models. Based on those results, uncertainty is discussed through an analysis discerning three dimensions of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis requires the assessment of a large panel of models and data sets. It is therefore rarely carried out. The originality of the paper also lies on the combination of quantitative established models with a qualitative analysis. The results surprisingly show that the greenhouse gas scenarios may in fact represent a low source of uncertainty, unlike electricity prices. Like forecasting, the main uncertainties are actually case study related and depend on the investigated variables. It is also shown that the nature of uncertainty evolves. Runoff uncertainty goes from variability, i.e. inherent randomness, to epistemic, i.e. limitation of science. The reverse situation occurs with the electricity price. The implications for scientists and policy makers are discussed

Umwelt, Entwicklung und Zusammenarbeit : eine Standortbestimmung

1. Einleitung Bis zu Beginn der siebziger Jahre galt die Sorge um die Umweltqualität als Luxus, den sich die Entwicklungsländer schlicht und einfach nicht leisten konnten. Anlässlich der Konferenz der Vereinten Nationen in Stockholm im Jahre 1972 machte sich die indische Premierministerin Indira Gandhi zur Sprecherin zahlreicher Entwicklungsländer, indem sie erklärte : „Wie kann man von den Bewohnern der Dörfer und Slums verlangen, sie sollten etwas gegen die Verschmutzung der Luft, der Flüss..

Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Management

Climate change affects hydropower production by modifying total annual inflow volumes and their seasonal distribution. Moreover, increasing air temperatures impact electricity consumption and, as a consequence, electricity prices. All together, these phenomena may lead to a loss in revenue. We show that an adequate management of hydropower plants mitigates these losses. These results are obtained by resorting to an interdisciplinary approach integrating hydrology, economy and hydropower management in an interdependent quantitative mode

The Future of Swiss Hydropower A Review on Drivers and Uncertainties

Swiss Hydropower (HP) is currently facing a wide range of challenges that have initiated a debate about future prospects and its role within the envisioned energy transition. Building on this debate, this paper provides an overview of the status and prospects of Swiss HP by identifying and evaluating the different drivers and uncertainties that Swiss HP faces. Based on a review and the perceptions held by some of the main Swiss HP stakeholders the two main topics that need to be addressed are the market driven impacts and the political, legal and social aspects. While the market dynamics cannot directly be influenced by Swiss companies or authorities, the regulatory framework can and needs to be adjusted. However, this requires a comprehensive stakeholder process and is at least a medium-term process

The Future of Swiss Hydropower Realities, Options and Open Questions

The NRP70 project 'The Future of Swiss Hydropower: An Integrated Economic Assessment of Chances, Threats and Solutions' (HP Future) has been initiated in 2014 with the objective to identify options for Swiss hydropower (HP) to adopt to the ongoing and expected electricity system changes. The project has been finalized in 2018 and this final report provides an overview of the obtained results and insights. Following a short summary of the main findings is provided

New glucosamine-based TLR4 agonists: design, synthesis, mechanism of action, and in vivo activity as vaccine adjuvants

20 p.-15 fig.-1 graph. abst.We disclose here a panel of small-molecule TLR4 agonists (the FP20 series) whose structure is derived from previously developed TLR4 ligands (FP18 series). The new molecules have increased chemical stability and a shorter, more efficient, and scalable synthesis. The FP20 series showed selective activity as TLR4 agonists with a potency similar to FP18. Interestingly, despite the chemical similarity with the FP18 series, FP20 showed a different mechanism of action and immunofluorescence microscopy showed no NF-κB nor p-IRF-3 nuclear translocation but rather MAPK and NLRP3-dependent inflammasome activation. The computational studies related a 3D shape of FP20 series with agonist binding properties inside the MD-2 pocket. FP20 displayed a CMC value lower than 5 μM in water, and small unilamellar vesicle (SUV) formation was observed in the biological activity concentration range. FP20 showed no toxicity in mouse vaccination experiments with OVA antigen and induced IgG production, thus indicating a promising adjuvant activity.The authors acknowledge the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie, project BactiVax (www.bactivax.eu) grant agreement no. 860325; the consortium CINMPIS; the project of excellence CHRONOS, CHRonical multifactorial disorders explored by NOvel integrated Strategies of the Department of Biotechnology and Biosciences; the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion (Spain) for project PID2021-126130OB-I00 (N.G.A.A.), PID2020-113588RB-I00 (S.M.-S.), PRE2018-086249 (A.M.-R), PRE2021-097247 (M.M.-T.); and project FEDER MINECO, the EM-platform at the CIC bioGUNE for support in cryo-EM imaging. J.J.-B. also thanks funding by CIBERES, an initiative of Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain. Perkin-Elmer Italia is also acknowledged for providing the cell imaging reagents.Peer reviewe

L’exploitation hydroélectrique au Tessin, ses liens avec le marché suisse de l’électricité et la «cantonalisation» des eaux, 1890-1990

Romerio Franco. L’exploitation hydroélectrique au Tessin, ses liens avec le marché suisse de l’électricité et la «cantonalisation» des eaux, 1890-1990. In: Bulletin d'histoire de l'électricité, n°22, décembre 1993. Production et distribution d’électricité : comparaisons internationales. pp. 67-84

Politique régionale et ressources hydroélectriques

This article brings to light the different models applied in the management of hydroelectric resources in the Swiss canton Ticino during the 20th century. Future prospects are broached in view of the opening of the electricity markets to competition. We equally analyse political projects, notably regarding matters of water cantonalisation, as well as the technico-economic factors which influence them. Conflicts, that have been particularly acute, are evoked, and socio-economic, energy and environmental issues detailed. The national and international context is pointed out. The study allows the identification of critical factors that must be considered in the definition of regional policies in relation to hydroelectric matters.<br>Cet article met en lumière les différents modèles de gestion des ressources hydroélectriques adoptés dans le canton du Tessin au XXe siècle. Les perspectives d’avenir sont esquissées en vue des processus d’ouverture des marchés à la concurrence. On analyse aussi bien les projets politiques, notamment en matière de cantonalisation des eaux, que les problèmes technico-économiques qui les ont influencés. Les conflits, qui ont été particulièrement aigus, sont évoqués, et les enjeux socio-économiques, énergétiques et environnementaux précisés. Le contexte national et international est rappelé tout au long de l’analyse. Cette étude permet d’identifier les facteurs critiques qu’il faut prendre en considération dans la définition des politiques régionales en matière hydroélectrique